The past few years have felt like a rollercoaster for just about everyone who works. Think about it: the whole world practically hit the pause button with the COVID-19 pandemic. Most of us were stuck at home, baking sourdough or learning TikTok dances, unless you were an essential worker. Then, as things started to open back up, not every job came back, leaving some industries still trying to find their footing.

Just when we thought we might catch a break, other global events, like the war in Ukraine, sent prices for energy and food through the roof. This means that even if you were making the same amount of money, it felt like less because everything cost more.
And technology? Oh boy, it’s been on a fast track, especially with stuff like generative AI coming into the picture. This is really changing the game for office jobs, making us rethink how we work and what skills we need.

Now, throw in the urgent shift towards greener, more sustainable ways of living and working to fight climate change. This is fantastic for the planet but also means big changes for jobs that rely on fossil fuels, as new opportunities in green industries start to open up.

It’s a lot, right? Each of these shifts is a challenge on its own, but together, they’re reshaping our world and how we make a living in ways we’re still trying to figure out. When everything feels this uncertain, trying to guess exactly what’s going to happen next is pretty tough. But that’s where forecasting comes into play. It’s not about having a crystal ball but rather thinking through the different ways things could go. This way, we can be a bit more ready for whatever the future throws at us. It’s about being prepared, flexible, and open to learning new things, so no matter how things shake out, we’re not caught completely off guard.

Agriculture and education are jobs growth areas.

The largest absolute gains in jobs will come from education (3 million jobs) and agriculture (4 million jobs), driven in part by demographics and in part by applications of new technologies in these fields. The new economic geography created by shifting supply chains and a greater focus on resilience over efficiency is also expected to create net job growth, with wins for economies in Asia and the Middle East especially.

Technology will create structural churn, with a quarter of companies seeing job decline from new technology adoption and more than half seeing job growth. But the human-machine frontier is shifting to new terrain. While expectations of the displacement of physical and manual work by machines has decreased, tasks requiring reasoning, communicating and coordinating – all traits with a comparative advantage for humans – are expected to be more automatable in the future.

This is not surprising. Generative artificial intelligence is expected to be adopted by nearly 75% of surveyed companies and is second only to humanoid and industrial robots in terms of expectations of job losses, most likely to affect bank tellers, cashiers, clerks, secretaries and accounting. Yet, the biggest threat to jobs is still seen to come not from technology, but from slowing economic growth, the rising costs of inputs and weaker purchasing power among consumers.

Reskilling on the rise

We also find that almost half of an individual’s skills – 44% – will need to change on average across all jobs. The skills with the highest share of companies reporting growing demand include analytical and creative thinking, followed by technological literacy, curiosity and lifelong learning, resilience and flexibility, systems thinking and AI and big data. Skills with less demand include global citizenship, sensory processing abilities and manual dexterity, endurance and precision.
For many individuals, the concurrent shift in the wider economic environment, the integration of new technologies at work and the expectation of future uncertainty translates into frustration with current job prospects, fear about future ones and despair about growing economic disparity in the future. For many companies, there is concern about the talent required to thrive in the new context: 60% of companies are concerned about skills gaps and 54% worry about being able to attract talent. And for governments, particularly those that underinvested in education and lifelong learning systems thus far, human capital will become the key impediment to navigating the new economic landscape.

Preparing for the future of jobs

How then should learners, workers, employers and governments prepare for the future of jobs? In a technology-intensive, greener and potentially deglobalizing world, local skills development will matter more than ever.

For today’s students, analytical and interpersonal skills, as well as the ability to understand and work with technology will be critical. Every student – regardless of their chosen fields – should aim to build these generalist skills to be ready for a rapidly changing future.
For today’s workers in declining fields, there is a major reskilling and transition effort needed, whereas for those in changing or growing fields, there is a need for upskilling and developing the ability for constant learning. The good news is that skilling can happen fast and online learning can offer a level playing field: workers from all education levels – including those without college or graduate education – take the same time to acquire online skill credentials.

Yet, it cannot be on individual learners and workers alone to negotiate complex new terrain. Governments must provide resources and a roadmap. This presents a major and unprecedented dual challenge for policymaking: governments must balance support for innovation with the regulation needed to make new technologies safe and, at the same time, support workers through safety nets, care systems and job centres, while making major investments in skilling systems, rapid certifications and partnerships with the education sector, businesses and non-profits alike, to drive change at scale.

Employers must play a part

Employers must play their part through investment in reskilling and upskilling – most expect to see a return on investment within one year, making training the most effective and responsible course of action. The best employers go further: supporting workers’ transitions outside the company when required, prioritising safety and well-being, fostering diversity, equity and inclusion and, finally, placing a premium on taking a skills-first approach over one that prioritises qualifications or job history. Employers that take these actions close skills gaps faster and are proven to enhance loyalty, productivity and motivation.